Why Mayor Duterte may not win the Presidency

Let me enumerate and explain a little why Mayor Duterte will not win the 2016 Presidential elections

1. Political – Hardcore traditional politicians are deeply entrenched in our political system. Majority of these “elite politicians” are silent on the possibility of Mayor Duterte running for president yes, but they are just waiting for the official announcement.

Once an official announcement is made that Mayor Duterte will run for president, they will come out in full force and attack his credibility from all directions.

The mudslinging will come not only from opponents but from the entire political spectrum. They will close ranks to prevent the man from taking the presidency so as to protect their political interests.

2. Oligarchs will not allow it – The super-rich in our society will see Duterte as a threat to their interests. The Mayor has strong inclination to favor the poor based on his own pronouncements and this is a warning sign to oligarchs.

We know that a presidential candidate needs billions to wage a nationwide campaign and the money normally comes from big businesses. It is not an understatement to say that behind every successful presidential candidate is a group of businessmen waiting to recover their investment.

If Mayor Duterte were to become president, expect oligarchs to give away some of their vested interests. This they know for a fact that’s why the super-rich are expected to carry a candidate whose interests are aligned with them

3. Electorates don’t care – While social media is getting stronger and exercises some sway on voters preference, this phenomenon is still at an early stage and may not yet be a contolling factor in the result of the 2016 national elections.

Majority of the poor electorates still look at elections as an opportunity for them to make some money no matter how small. They believe that whoever becomes president is not important because they will still be poor. There is this feeling of resignation that those in power will always make money and the poor will stay poor.

So every opportunity to make money during election period is grabbed whether as a paid campaigner or hakot, election watcher, or whatever opportunity that any candidate can offer. whoever gives them the opportunity to make some money, they are expected to vote for that candidate. It is the result of affiliation.
4. Federalism is not Possible as Yet – Federalism Philippine-style is still in the drawing board and no thorough study has been conducted just as yet. Whether it is really good for the country is still a question that can only be answered once it is applied.

Given that philippines has its own unique and diverse culture, geopolitical setting, and greedy vested interests of politicians, federalism might only result in strengthening regionalism that can divide the nation further. It can result in weakening of the national government.

5. Hokus-PCOS – Finally, there is this issue with PCOS machines being manipulated to favor a desired candidate. Mayor Duterte has announced on several occasions that he does not have the money to run a nationwide campaign. His problem is not just about spending for a nationwide campaign but also how to make sure that he will not be cheated in the elections.

The 2010 elections revealed that PCOS machines result can be manipulated to favor a particular candidate. Although the revelation of an unnamed operator was not further investigated, it is still a possibility that it might happen in the 2016 elections.

Mayor Duterte has the charm, the performance to show, the will to overhaul the system and the vision to build a better Philippines even from the ground up. Many look up to him as the Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, Mahathir Mohammad of Malaysia, Vladimir Putin of Russia, and Jose Mujica of Uruguay all combined.

A Mayor Duterte becoming president of the Philippines is a once in a life time opportunity for Filipinos to see real change. If his accomplishments as Davao Mayor are to be replicated in the entire country, then it serves as a window for a future developed and peaceful Philippines.

I would like to see Mayor Duterte become president of the country because he is the only one who knows the problem and willing to tackle it head on. While other candidates are giving just the same rhetorics, Duterte has the record to show. He mean what he says and he is passionate about what he believes must be done.  But the obstacles are huge and persistent.