China’s Creeping Invasion

China sent another ship to Scarborough Shoal (Philippines renamed it Panatag Shoal without international recognition just to put a lame claim over it) making the stand-off a totally one-sided affair because Chinese fishermen can now freely exploit the disputed area without opposition from our Navy or Coast Guard(wait, do we have a Navy?). This is reminiscent of the tension in Mischief Reef back in the 90s when after all the posturings and so-called diplomatic brouhaha, China practically ended with all of Spratly Islands to itself.  They will assert their claim even to the point of armed conflict just like what happened in Johnson’s reef (part of Spratly group of islands) where they killed around  70 Vietnamese Navy men ( and Vietnam is their close ally!).  Just like Scarborough shoal, Johnson’s Reef is closer to Vietnam than it is to China but it did not matter because China has its own territorial sea mapping they love to call  “Nine Dash” and the Scarborough shoal. just like Spratly Islands and Johnson’s reef, is inside that so-called Nine Dash coverage (there were reports that it is actually more than nine but China is laying the ground for claims slowly by dividing the ASEAN countries so it is actually still limiting itself for now.) 

Immediate historical reference will reveal that although China made a claim for islands also claimed by other countries like Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, etc., they however did not initially intended to physically take possession of the disputed islands.  What they were proposing was a joint development of the disputed area but some countries like Vietnam wanted to take full possession so they got blown to pieces.  Mighty China is willing to compromise based only on its own terms and the Philippines will experience what Vietnam Navy did in Johnson’s Reef if we will continue to display defiance.

The Philippines is now exhausting all diplomatic means, trying to explore diplomatic channels and creating links as well as opening several peaceful avenues in order to diffuse tensions as well as create some friction to show that we will not be cowed by recent posturings of China.  The problem is it all boils down to a single question of whether or not we are willing to spill blood to assert our claim over such a small territory where not even a single Filipino soul could be found living. We have no presence there to begin with.  Just like other countries, our fishermen go there to catch fish and then go back home and China knows this.  Everybody knows this.  What’s best at the moment is leave the area as it was before where all countries can have joint exploration of the resources without one country laying claim over it.  If China will still assert that its theirs, then so be it.  Give them Palawan if they want.  Why? because we cannot defeat them.  There’s no way on earth we can defeat China.  We are a poor country with nothing to show but words.  Our Navy has nothing but WWII crafts that are just hand me downs from USA.  Our Air Force is all air no force. 

So what can we do? Philippines continue to harp on the letters of UNCLOS and somehow think that because we have a Mutual Defense Treaty with the US and a membership with ASEAN, that some respect should be accorded by China to us.  The problem is even the US did not sign the final draft of UNCLOS because they also did not agree with the contents particularly the extended territorial coverage like the very expansive exclusive economic zone of hundreds of miles from the baseline of each country.

The only remaining recourse for the Philippines is to agree to a settlement with China that will allow joint development of the contested maritime area.  No amount of diplomatic talks can make China leave the place and Philippines knows this.  We are such a small negligible country on the global map that even our so-called close ally, the US will think long and hard before coming to our aid especially if the fight is against China.  We are alone in this! Our government must stop calling other nations and instead enter into secret talks with China for the joint development of Scarborough Shoal to the exclusion of other claiming nations that are not willing to fight China in the first place so we should not bother asking help from them.  Sometimes international diplomacy is as simple as that.     

 

 

 

The effect

the remedy

The sleeping Giant has awaken and is now wielding it’s sword by testing the waters of what was usually known as the South China Sea

China is starting to assert it’s might not only economically but also militarily, particularly in what was geographically known as the South China Sea.  With all it’s strength and power, countries that lay claim to the diminutive and scattered islands called the Spratleys can offer only token resistance to the imposing Chinese battleship stationed in the area.  Long considered a potential flashpoint for it’s rich natural resources, the contested area (given many names by countries that lay claim to it) is a politically good opportunity for the Chinese government to showcase to the world it’s military prowess.  The message is being served, not just to the opposing small and militarily defenseless countries but also to the other super powers particularly the U.S., Great Britain and Japan that China is a force to reckon with right now and moreso in the future.

The treaty finalized by the UNCLOS(United Nation’s Convention on the Law of the Sea) of which China was even a signatory is proving to be more of a wrangled diplomatic idea rather than a desired solution to the conflicting claims of neighbor countries.  For years, they laboured to produce the said treaty at the expense of government coffers only to see in the end that some countries were not amenable to it. Gee whiz, even the US did not ratify the treaty!

Small countries will protest all they can for sure, but they have no strength to begin with and they know pretty well that they don’t stand a chance, so they will look up to the other superpowers.  The superpowers though will take this one sitting down.  We’re just not worth their time, energy and money.  Southeast Asia after all is not the Middle East.